Transaction Volume Is Approaching Pre-Pandemic Levels

Commercial real estate investment activity is expected to increase 16% in 2026 to $562 billion, nearly matching the pre-pandemic annual average from 2015 to 2019. After two years of suppressed transaction volume, deals are getting done again.

For borrowers and sponsors, this recovery creates both opportunity and competition. More deals closing means more demand for capital, tighter timelines, and a market that rewards prepared borrowers. Here is what is driving the surge and how to position yourself.

The Maturity Wall Is Forcing Action

One of the biggest catalysts for 2026 deal volume is the maturity wall. Hundreds of billions in commercial real estate debt originated in 2021 and 2022 at low rates are coming due this year and next. Borrowers who extended loans through rate cap purchases and modification agreements are running out of runway.

This creates transaction activity in two forms: forced sales where borrowers cannot refinance, and opportunistic acquisitions where well-capitalized buyers pick up distressed assets at favorable basis points. Both require financing, and both are driving bridge lending volume higher. Bridge loan volume grew 8.9% year over year heading into 2026.

Where the Deals Are Happening

Multifamily continues to lead transaction volume. Rent growth has moderated from the highs of 2021 and 2022 but remains positive in most markets. New supply deliveries are peaking in 2026, which means the best buying opportunities may be in lease-up assets or properties in submarkets where new construction is limited.

Industrial transaction activity is steady. E-commerce penetration continues to rise, and nearshoring trends are creating demand for domestic warehouse and distribution space. Cap rates have expanded slightly from the lows, making acquisitions more attractive on a current yield basis.

Manufactured housing communities are seeing increased deal flow as more investors recognize the asset class. Requity Group has been active in this space, acquiring and improving parks where lot rents are below market and occupancy can be increased through professional management.

Office remains the challenge sector. Transaction volume is recovering from historic lows, but pricing discovery is ongoing. The assets trading tend to be either trophy properties in gateway markets or deeply discounted suburban office being repositioned for alternative uses.

Retail has been a quiet outperformer. Grocery-anchored and necessity-based retail centers are trading at healthy volumes with cap rates that reflect their defensive income characteristics.

What This Means for Financing

Commercial mortgage originations are projected at $805 billion in 2026, a 27% increase over the prior year. Lenders are actively competing for business, which is good news for borrowers. Here is what to expect:

  • More term sheets, faster. Lenders are staffing up and pushing to close. Borrowers with clean packages are getting term sheets within days, not weeks.
  • Spread compression on quality deals. For stabilized assets with strong sponsorship, competition among lenders is compressing spreads. This is the best rate environment for qualified borrowers since 2021.
  • Bridge capital is abundant. Debt funds, private lenders, and balance sheet lenders all have capital to deploy. The bridge lending market is experiencing a genuine resurgence driven by the maturity wall and increasing deal velocity.
  • Underwriting remains disciplined. Despite the competition, lenders are not loosening standards. Debt service coverage ratios, loan-to-value limits, and borrower net worth requirements remain consistent with post-2022 norms.

How Borrowers Should Respond

In a market with rising deal volume and abundant capital, execution speed becomes a competitive advantage. Here is how to capitalize:

Get your financing lined up before you find the deal. Pre-approval from a bridge lender or a relationship with a capital provider who can move quickly gives you credibility with sellers. At Requity Lending, we issue term sheets within 48 hours so our borrowers can compete on certainty of close.

Focus on the exit. Every acquisition should have a defined path to permanent financing or sale. The deals that are failing in this market are the ones where borrowers bought without a clear exit and are now facing maturity with no options.

Do not overpay because capital is available. Abundant financing is not a reason to stretch on price. Underwrite to current cash flows, not pro forma projections, and make sure the deal works even if rates stay flat.

The Outlook for the Rest of 2026

GDP growth is projected at 2.0% with inflation at 2.5%. The Fed is expected to deliver one more rate cut by year end. Barring an inflation surprise or geopolitical shock, the conditions supporting elevated deal volume should persist through the second half of the year.

For borrowers and investors, 2026 is shaping up to be the most active commercial real estate market since the pandemic. The opportunities are real, but they favor those who are prepared, capitalized, and moving with intention.